U.S. cables: Mubarak still a vital ally

The U.S. relationship Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is full of contradictions and tensions, according to the U.S. recently published diplomatic cables, but is also supported by the basic interests in the same space and unpredictable world.

Analysis of cables in a private and confidential published by Wikileaks and its media partners reveals the frustration of the United States in the absence of planning for the succession to President Mubarak, concern about stuttering economic reform and private criticism hard-line government against domestic opponents Mubarak.

But the cable also show that Washington considers Egypt an important ally, and so far stable of topics including the Iranian nuclear program, which promotes the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and makes life difficult for Hamas in Gaza.

Cords show that Mubarak has been consistently tough line toward Iran, said U.S. diplomats in 2008, which warned Tehran not to provoke the Americans "is a weapon and demanded by Egypt would never accept nuclear weapons with Iran.

Mubarak also warned against Iran's influence with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a power in February last year, was quoted as describing "the hand of Tehran ease movements throughout the region, Gulf of Morocco. "

A 2009 cable noted that the "discovery of a Hezbollah cell in Egypt, the Egyptians seem more willing to confront Iranian surrogates, and work closely with Israel." Meanwhile, the Mubarak government as cables a valuable partner to stop smuggling into Gaza from Egypt. A cable from 2008 quoted a senior Egyptian military figures like that Egypt had spent about $ 40 million to buy steel for a wall underground the border with Gaza, and Egypt had to pay the price for this wall, in the form of public opinion in both Egypt and the region. "

There is no guarantee that "successor" to the Mubarak government would take such a hard line with Hamas.

U.S. alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has also been important counterbalance Iran's growing influence on the "Arab street" and among them, such as Syria and Qatar.

Before Mubarak's visit to Washington in May 2009, Ambassador Margaret Scobey wrote from Cairo that "the Egyptians want the visit to show that Egypt remains indispensable U.S. ally Arabic. "

Scobey after Mubarak was "realistic time some tried and true, naturally cautious and conservative, and is idealistic goals."

He saw himself as "someone who is tough but fair, to ensure the basic needs of its people."

Meanwhile, the Mubarak government has been very sensitive to any small perceived in Washington. He complained of cuts in U.S. aid economic stagnation and a level of military aid, as it shows our point of view less the value of our relationship, "according to a cable.

There is pressure to improve human rights, according to a cable Scobey in 2009, Mubarak has this problem personally, and it does boil when I rise, especially in public. "

Cable later said Mubarak "refers to the Shah of Iran. The United States encouraged him to accept the reforms, only to watch the hands of extremist religious revolutionaries"

Egyptian President relied on his interior minister and intelligence services to "keep animals away, and Mubarak is not sleeping on their tactics."

U.S. frustration with the cables see Mubarak's reluctance to address issues of human rights, one in 2008, said: "While Egypt has made some gains in recent years, such as the development of a free press as a whole has been slow. "

In a cable later, Scobey suggested that the new Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, "may wish to bookmark for future debate on democratization and human rights." But given the sensitivities Mubarak, the United States has stepped gently pressing on the Egyptian government on human rights. A cable from 2009 to the United States, said to avoid "public clashes had become routine in recent years" in human rights.

In the past five years, the cables show a growing unease about the lack of a succession plan, and apprehension at the thought of Mubarak's younger son, Gamal, taking over from his father. In April 2006, found that cable's wife Suzanne Mubarak, President, his son was "the most ardent booster," but added:. "The possibility that Gamal to succeed his father remains very unpopular in the street"

He added that "unlike his father (Gamal) can not support the military for granted, without having served as an officer, but the same cable regrets the lack of obvious candidates to succeed the aging Mubarak -. This situation seems be the case today.

Scobey wrote in apparent frustration two years ago that Mubarak seems to be to trust in God and the ubiquitous security services for military and civilian ensure an orderly transition. "

Recent events may have eroded confidence, but a cable in 2007 emphasized that the unit of Egypt's internal security ", estimated at 1.4 million inhabitants, is at least twice its size was under Sadat. .. and make any forcible change of the unlikely leader. "

This view is being challenged - and the role of the military can be crucial to decide the outcome. A 2008 cable from Egyptian experts quoted as describing a "disgruntled officer corps level" with military pay lags behind civilian and senior military against Gamal to succeed his father.

Egyptian commentators also noted that many officers were frustrated that loyalty to the regime of competence false and that the best military talent was sidelined if it would threaten the government. However, a cable concluded: "The army remains a political and economic strength."

After discussing whether the army can intervene to prevent Mubarak to pass the baton to his son, the cable concluded: "In a succession scenario Messier, however, it becomes more difficult to predict the actions of the army."